Emergency Preparation — Truly Boring, but Essential
The Bay Area's Katrina
Similarly, it's no secret that significant earthquakes occur nearly
every year in California, that some of them can be greater than
magnitude 6.7, and that it is just a question of time before one of
these monster earthquakes clobbers the San Francisco Bay area again.
The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that there is a 62% chance of a
magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquake striking the San Francisco Bay
region before 2032 (see http://quake.usgs.gov/research/seismology/wg02). Such an earthquake, regardless of
whether it is on the San Andreas Fault, the Hayward Fault, or another
Bay Area fault, will cause major damage throughout the region. We
live in a bayside, urban environment similar to that of Kobe, Japan,
which in 1995 experienced a magnitude 6.9 earthquake that killed
6,000 people and caused over $100 billion in damage.
But a probabilistic forecast is not a specific prediction. We don't
know whether this devastating earthquake will occur tomorrow, 30
years from now, or even beyond that. But it will happen, and it
behooves us to be prepared. The basic problem is that emergency
preparation is truly boring and therefore requires discipline,
diligence, and persistence. It's easy to get energized about
emergency preparedness in the wake of a Katrina or Rita disaster, but
human nature is such that this enthusiasm decays rapidly as attention
gets diverted to more immediate concerns.
So what can we do to maintain our community's ability to respond to a
major disaster? Three things come immediately to mind: (1) recognize
that your household will be on its own after a major disaster, and be
prepared to provide for your basic needs (particularly water) for
several days to a week, (2) train yourself to respond effectively to
a disaster by taking Red Cross or PANDA courses in emergency
preparedness (see below), and (3) engage in the political process to
insure that our elected City, State, and Federal representatives
provide leadership and financial support for emergency preparedness
programs. With regard to item 3, note that emergency preparedness
involves not only planning and training before the event, but also
response, recovery and rebuilding after the event. In Katrina there
were acknowledged failures in all phases, but the failures in
recovery and rebuilding will have the most long-lasting effects. We
need to insure that similar failures do not occur in the Bay Area
after our "Katrina" earthquake hits.
ARES/RACES drill
As follow-up to this drill, I modified my map of District 5 to
include 31 overlays, each depicting a specific "mini-neighborhood." I
then put five prints of each in 31 hanging folders in a file box that
(along with my District 5 map) now resides in the PANDA trailer. This
should make assessment of damages, injuries, etc. far easier in the
event of a major disaster that activates District 5 PANDAs.
District 5 PANDAs
Also at the 10 November meeting, Eli Bernzweig of the Green Acres 2
neighborhood was lauded for his efforts to contact managers of
multi-story apartments and motels in District 5 and make them aware
of the importance of emergency preparation. Specifically, a letter
that Eli drafted for Barbara Cimino's signature has received positive
and gratifying response from the apartment and motel managers. OES
plans to send similar letters to apartment and motel managers in the
other 5 fire districts in Palo Alto.
New Barron Park PANDAs
A glance at the map of Barron Park, however, shows that our
geographic distribution of PANDAs is still very uneven. The five
circles delineate major areas without PANDAs, and careful inspection
will reveal some additional smaller areas. If you live within the
dashed circles, or elsewhere in Barron Park, please consider taking
advantage of the free PANDA training offered by the Office of
Emergency Services of the City of Palo Alto. Upcoming courses in
early 2006 are:
PANDA Basic 06-01: Wednesdays 18 and 25 Jan, plus 01, 08 and 15 Feb
9:00 am to 12:00 noon; Saturday 11 Feb 9:00 AM to 4:00 PM (field
exercise)
For a detailed description of PANDA training, please see
my article in the Summer 2005 issue of the Barron Park Association Newsletter.
Web sites related to Emergency Preparedness
By Patrick Muffler, BPA Emergency Preparedness Chair email.
www.bpaonline.org/eprep-articles
The devastation wrought by Hurricane Katrina on southern Louisiana
and Mississippi had long been forecast, and warnings of its potential
impact on the areas of New Orleans below sea level had been sounded
for decades. It's no secret that hurricanes occur each year in the
Gulf of Mexico, that some of them can be Category 5, and that it was
just a question of time before one of these monster storms clobbered
southern Louisiana and Mississippi. It is truly a tragedy that these
forecasts and concerns were almost universally ignored.
On Saturday 22 October, ARES/RACES (the amateur-radio organization
that provides emergency communications during emergencies) held its
quarterly Santa Clara County drill simulating a large earthquake in
the region. A group of us opened the PANDA trailer at Fire Station #5
on Arastradero and Clemo and then walked nearby streets to simulate
damage assessment and reporting by radio. We found great difficulties
in finding the poorly marked addresses of residences — a severe
impediment to formulating damage and injury reports to transmit to
Palo Alto City Office of Emergency Services and then to the county
Emergency Operations Center.
Last spring, a group of PANDAs in District 5 took the initiative to
organize from the ground up (see my summer 2005 EP article archived
at (www.bpaonline.org/eprep-articles).
At the group's November 10 meeting, Barbara Cimino, Emergency Manager
of the Palo Alto Office of Emergency Services, announced that the
Palo Alto Police Department has begun cooperation with the PANDA
program. Specifically, Officer Scott Savage will provide instruction
in traffic control, evacuations and perimeter security to PANDA
graduates.
I am delighted to announce that 11 new PANDAs from Barron Park
graduated from this fall's PANDA training courses. Congratulations to
Markus Fromherz, Vicky Johnson, Lawrence Johnson, Edward Jones, Bern
King, Pat Sanders, Tom Sanders, Bob Sikora, Alicia Watkins, Yvonne
Wolters, and Susana Young for your commitment to emergency
preparedness and response.
PANDA Basic 06-02: Wednesdays 18 and 25 Jan, plus 01, 08 and 15 Feb 6:30 pm to
9:00 pm; Saturday 11 Feb 9:00 AM to 4:00 PM (field exercise)
PANDA Basic 06-03: Wednesdays 12, 19 and 26 Apr, plus 03 and 10 Feb
9:00 am to 12:00 noon; Saturday 06 May 9:00 AM to 4:00 PM (field
exercise)
PANDA Basic 06-04: Wednesdays 12, 19 and 26 Apr, plus 03 and 10 Feb
6:30 pm to 9:00 pm; Saturday 06 May 9:00 AM to 4:00 PM (field
exercise)
These all worked on 30 November 2005.
Palo Alto Office of Emergency Services www.cityofpaloalto.org/oes/index.html
www.cityofpaloalto.org/oes/panda
www.cityofpaloalto.org/oes/panda/pandaclass.html
Barbara Cimino (650) 617-3197 (email withheld on online newsletter)
Quarterly articles about Emergency Preparedness in Barron Park
www2.bpaonline.org/BP-News/index.html
USGS earthquake probabilities
http://quake.usgs.gov/research/seismology/wg02
Putting down roots in earthquake country
http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/2005/15/
Living with our Faults
www.cityofpaloalto.org/fire/earthquake/contents.html
HAM radio
www.scc-ares-races.org/aresraces.htm
Disaster preparedness kits (Palo Alto Chapter of American Red Cross)
www.paarc.org/supplies/cat_disaster.htm
Hurricane Ivan
www2.bpaonline.org/Emergencyprep/experience-ivan.html